Risk estimation results - impossible to publish?
During the last years, I have done 10 (!) experiments about risk estimation. Most of them stay unpublished. A minute ago, I decided to give up. It is no coincidence that I get all my submissions in the software engineering comunity rejected. It is systematic. And it is no coincidence that the psychologists did publish my results. They know how hard it is for poor human brains to cope with probabilities. But in the software engineering research, this is unknown. And this easily explains why no experiments or quantitative experience about risk estimation are published in this research comunity. I always wondered because I could not believe that I am the first software engineering researcher investigating the quantitative quality of risk estimation.
I have spent some time to go through reviewer comments and decided that I can not remedy their critics. Results from risk estimation always look like rubbish. There is no reason for concluding that the experiment participants didn´t do their best or that the researcher failed.
Well, I give up. As long as disciplines do separate work, the software engineering comunity will continue to believe that probabilities can be estimated and risk estimates can be taken serious. Although other disciplines have already shown that they can´t.
Anyway, I learned a lot during the experiments and I hope that the participants also did. We know what we know and no-one can take it from us!
I have spent some time to go through reviewer comments and decided that I can not remedy their critics. Results from risk estimation always look like rubbish. There is no reason for concluding that the experiment participants didn´t do their best or that the researcher failed.
Well, I give up. As long as disciplines do separate work, the software engineering comunity will continue to believe that probabilities can be estimated and risk estimates can be taken serious. Although other disciplines have already shown that they can´t.
Anyway, I learned a lot during the experiments and I hope that the participants also did. We know what we know and no-one can take it from us!
AndreaHerrmann - 21. Apr, 18:44